Literaturnachweis - Detailanzeige
| Autor/inn/en | Fernández-Cano, Antonio; Torralbo, Manuel; Vallejo, Mónica |
|---|---|
| Titel | Time series of scientific growth in Spanish doctoral theses (1848–2009) |
| Quelle | In: Scientometrics, (2011) 1, S.15-36
PDF als Volltext |
| Dokumenttyp | gedruckt; online; Zeitschriftenaufsatz |
| ISSN | 0138-9130 |
| DOI | 10.1007/s11192-011-0572-x |
| Schlagwörter | Time series; Scientific growth; Doctoral theses; Exponential smoothing; ARIMA models; Spain; Modulatory variable |
| Abstract | Abstract This article analyses scientific growth time series using data for Spanish doctoral theses from 1848 to 2009, retrieved from national databases and an in-depth archive search. Data are classified into subseries by historical periods. The analytical techniques employed range from visual analysis of deterministic graphs to curve-fitting with exponential smoothing and AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average models. Forecasts are made using the best model. The main finding is that Spanish output of doctoral theses appears to fit a quasi-logistic growth model in line with Price’s predictions. An additional control variable termed year-on-year General Welfare is shown to modulate scientific growth, especially in the historical period from 1899 to 1939. |
| Erfasst von | OLC |
| Update | 2023/2/05 |
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