Conditional Reasoning in Context: A Dual-Source Model of Probabilistic Inference

Autor/inn/en	Klauer, Karl Christoph; Beller, Sieghard; Hutter, Mandy
Titel	Conditional Reasoning in Context: A Dual-Source Model of Probabilistic Inference
Quelle	In: Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 36 (2010) 2, S.298-323 (26 Seiten) PDF als Volltext Verfügbarkeit
Sprache	englisch
Dokumenttyp	gedruckt; online; Zeitschriftenaufsatz
ISSN	0278-7393
DOI	10.1037/a0018705
Schlagwörter	Inferences; Evidence; Prior Learning; Models; Probability; Inhibition; Thinking Skills + Suchen Sie Ihr Suchwort? Inference; Inferenz; Evidenz; Vorkenntnisse; Analogiemodell; Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung; Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie; Hemmung; Denkfähigkeit
Abstract	A dual-source model of probabilistic conditional inference is proposed. According to the model, inferences are based on 2 sources of evidence: logical form and prior knowledge. Logical form is a decontextualized source of evidence, whereas prior knowledge is activated by the contents of the conditional rule. In Experiments 1 to 3, manipulations of perceived sufficiency and necessity mapped on the parameters quantifying prior knowledge. Emphasizing rule validity increased the weight given to form-based evidence relative to knowledge-based evidence (Experiment 1). Manipulating rule form (only-if vs. if-then) had a focused effect on the parameters quantifying form-based evidence (Experiment 3). The model also provides a parsimonious description of data from the so-called negations paradigm and adequately accounts for polarity bias in that paradigm (Experiment 4). Relationships to alternative conceptualizations of conditional inference are discussed. (Contains 8 figures and 6 footnotes.) (As Provided).
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Erfasst von	ERIC (Education Resources Information Center), Washington, DC
Update	2017/4/10