Statistical Risk Assessment: Old Problems and New Applications

Autor/inn/en	Gottfredson, Stephen D.; Moriarty, Laura J.
Titel	Statistical Risk Assessment: Old Problems and New Applications
Quelle	In: Crime & Delinquency, 52 (2006) 1, S.178-200 (23 Seiten) PDF als Volltext Verfügbarkeit
Sprache	englisch
Dokumenttyp	gedruckt; online; Zeitschriftenaufsatz
ISSN	0011-1287
DOI	10.1177/0011128705281748
Schlagwörter	Risk; Justice; Criminals; Crime; Evaluation Methods; Research Methodology; Test Construction; Classification; Prediction; Predictor Variables; Sampling; Test Validity; Test Reliability; Ethics; Delinquency; Juvenile Justice; Recidivism; Statistical Analysis + Suchen Sie Ihr Suchwort? Risiko; Gerechtigkeit; Straftäter; Crimes; Delict; Delicts; Delikt; Research method; Forschungsmethode; Testaufbau; Classification system; Klassifikation; Klassifikationssystem; Vorhersage; Prädiktor; Testvalidität; Testreliabilität; Ethik; Kriminalität; Jugendgerichtshilfe; Rückfall; Statistische Analyse
Abstract	Statistically based risk assessment devices are widely used in criminal justice settings. Their promise remains largely unfulfilled, however, because assumptions and premises requisite to their development and application are routinely ignored and/or violated. This article provides a brief review of the most salient of these assumptions and premises, addressing the base rate and selection ratios, methods of combining predictor variables and the nature of criterion variables chosen, cross-validation, replicability, and generalizability. The article also discusses decision makers' choices to add or delete items from the instruments and suggests recommendations for policy makers to consider when adopting risk assessments. Suggestions for improved practice, practical and methodological, are made. (Contains 6 notes.) (As Provided).
Anmerkungen	SAGE Publications. 2455 Teller Road, Thousand Oaks, CA 91320. Tel: 800-818-7243; Tel: 805-499-9774; Fax: 800-583-2665; e-mail: journals@sagepub.com; Web site: http://sagepub.com
Erfasst von	ERIC (Education Resources Information Center), Washington, DC
Update	2017/4/10