Demographic dynamics and long-run development. Insights for the secular stagnation debate.

Autor/inn/en	Cervellati, Matteo; Sunde, Uwe; Zimmermann, Klaus F.
Titel	Demographic dynamics and long-run development. Insights for the secular stagnation debate. Gefälligkeitsübersetzung: Bevölkerungsdynamik und Langzeitentwicklung. Einsichten für die Debatte einer säkularen Stagnation.
Quelle	In: Journal of population economics, 30 (2017) 2, S. 401-432 PDF als Volltext Link als defekt meldenVerfügbarkeit
Sprache	englisch
Dokumenttyp	online; gedruckt; Zeitschriftenaufsatz
ISSN	0176-1714; 0933-1433; 1432-1475
DOI	10.1007/s00148-016-0626-8
Schlagwörter	Bildungsbeteiligung; Lebenserwartung; Bevölkerungsentwicklung; Kapitalbildung; Produktivität; Sparen; Sterblichkeit; Welt; Wirtschaftsentwicklung; Altern; Wachstumstheorie; Indikator; Einkommensentwicklung; Humankapital; Lebenserwartung; Prognostik; Bildungsbeteiligung; Quote; Indikator; Bevölkerungsentwicklung; Bevölkerungsprognose; Demografischer Wandel; Sterblichkeit; Humankapital; Einkommensentwicklung; Kapitalbildung; Produktivität; Sparen; Wachstumstheorie; Wirtschaftsentwicklung; Altern; Prognostik; Quote; Welt
Abstract	"This paper takes a global, long-run perspective on the recent debate about secular stagnation, which has so far mainly focused on the short term. The analysis is motivated by observing the interplay between the economic and demographic transition that has occurred in the developed world over the past 150 years. To the extent that high growth rates in the past have partly been the consequence of singular changes during the economic and demographic transition, growth is likely to become more moderate once the transition is completed. At the same time, a similar transition is on its way in most developing countries, with profound consequences for the development prospects in these countries, but also for global comparative development. The evidence presented here suggests that long-run demographic dynamics have potentially important implications for the prospects of human and physical capital accumulation, the evolution of productivity, and the question of secular stagnation." (Author's abstract, © Springer-Verlag).
Erfasst von	Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, Nürnberg
Update	2017/3