The Mental Representation of Causal Conditional Reasoning: Mental Models or Causal Models

Autor/inn/en	Ali, Nilufa; Chater, Nick; Oaksford, Mike
Titel	The Mental Representation of Causal Conditional Reasoning: Mental Models or Causal Models
Quelle	In: Cognition, 119 (2011) 3, S.403-418 (16 Seiten)Infoseite zur Zeitschrift PDF als Volltext Verfügbarkeit
Sprache	englisch
Dokumenttyp	gedruckt; online; Zeitschriftenaufsatz
ISSN	0010-0277
DOI	10.1016/j.cognition.2011.02.005
Schlagwörter	Cognitive Processes; Causal Models; Logical Thinking; Inferences + Suchen Sie Ihr Suchwort? Cognitive process; Kognitiver Prozess; Kausalanalyse; Inference; Inferenz
Abstract	In this paper, two experiments are reported investigating the nature of the cognitive representations underlying causal conditional reasoning performance. The predictions of causal and logical interpretations of the conditional diverge sharply when inferences involving "pairs" of conditionals--such as "if P[subscript 1] then Q" and "if P[subscript 2] then Q"--are considered. From a causal perspective, the causal direction of these conditionals is critical: are the "P[subscript i] causes" of "Q"; or symptoms "caused by Q". The rich variety of inference patterns can naturally be modelled by Bayesian networks. A pair of causal conditionals where "Q" is an effect corresponds to a "collider" structure where the two causes ("P[subscript i]") converge on a common effect. In contrast, a pair of causal conditionals where "Q" is a cause corresponds to a network where two effects ("P[subscript i]") diverge from a common cause. Very different predictions are made by fully explicit or initial mental models interpretations. These predictions were tested in two experiments, each of which yielded data most consistent with causal model theory, rather than with mental models. (As Provided).
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Erfasst von	ERIC (Education Resources Information Center), Washington, DC
Update	2017/4/10