Literaturnachweis - Detailanzeige
| Autor/inn/en | Morrison, James L.; Mecca, Thomas V. |
|---|---|
| Titel | Managing Uncertainty: Environmental Analysis/Forecasting in Academic Planning. |
| Quelle | (1988), (51 Seiten)
PDF als Volltext kostenfreie Datei |
| Sprache | englisch |
| Dokumenttyp | gedruckt; online; Monographie |
| Schlagwörter | Change Strategies; College Planning; Decision Making; Educational Assessment; Educational Planning; Environment; Evaluation Methods; Formative Evaluation; Higher Education; Policy Formation; Prediction; Social Influences |
| Abstract | An approach to environmental analysis and forecasting that educational policymakers can employ in dealing with the level of uncertainty in strategic decision making is presented. Traditional planning models are weak in identifying environmental changes and assessing their organizational impact. The proposed approach does not lead decision makers to conclude that the uncertainty they perceive in the external environment has been reduced. It enhances their capability to deal with a changing environment by making the uncertainty they perceive explicit (via analysis and evaluation of alternative future states of an organization's environment and the source of change within it). Topics of discussion include: environmental analysis and forecasting; issue identification; environmental scanning; structuring issues; forecasting; cross impact analysis; alternative scenarios (demonstration, driving force, and system change); policy analysis; and action plans. A case study illustrating the application to the strategic planning process of a two-year college is provided. It looks at the participants in the process (drawn from across the college's administrative and instructional staff), scanning the external environment from a variety of sources, forecasting external changes, refining the forecast, developing the cross impact model, developing alternative scenarios, conducting the policy analysis, incorporating the strategies into the college's ongoing activities, and benefits and limitations. Problems, issues, and needed research are noted. It is concluded that by using the best available information, it is possible to anticipate plausible alternative futures and limit the number of unanticipated possibilities to the smallest possible set. Contains 180 references. (SM) |
| Erfasst von | ERIC (Education Resources Information Center), Washington, DC |
Literaturbeschaffung und Bestandsnachweise in Bibliotheken prüfen
Permalink als QR-Code
Inhalt auf sozialen Plattformen teilen (nur vorhanden, wenn Javascript eingeschaltet ist)
Teile diese Seite:
